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Empirical Evidence on Feedback Trading in Mature and Emerging Stock Markets

  • Martin T. Bohl

    (Department of Economics, European University Viadrina Frankfurt)

  • Pierre Siklos

    (Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University)

We investigate the hypothesis that some participants in mature and emerging capital markets engage in feedback trading. The analysis is based on the Shiller-Sentana-Wadhwani noise trader model. It has the attractive property that it yields testable implications about the presence of positive and negative feedback traders in stock markets. This theoretical framework, together with an asymmetric GARCH-type model, allows us to draw conclusions about whether differences exist between mature and emerging capital markets in terms of the degree of feedback trading. The empirical results show that positive and negative feedback trading strategies exist in both types of markets but are more pronounced in emerging stock markets than in their mature counterparts. Hence, non-fundamental trading strategies seems to play a more important role in emerging relative to mature stock markets.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp137.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 137.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:137
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  1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," NBER Working Papers 2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
  3. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:att:wimass:9002 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  8. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Gregory Koutmos & Reza Saidi, 2001. "Positive feedback trading in emerging capital markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-297.
  11. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  12. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March.
  13. LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 199-219, April.
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