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Empirical evidence on feedback trading in mature and emerging stock markets

  • Martin Bohl
  • Pierre Siklos

We investigate the hypothesis that some participants in mature and emerging stock markets engage in feedback trading. The analysis is based on the Shiller-Sentana-Wadhwani model, which has the attractive property that it yields testable implications about the presence of positive and negative feedback traders in stock markets. In addition, the Shiller-Sentana-Wadhwani model is particularly well-suited to investigate whether momentum type behaviour might be present during periods of large stock market downturns. This theoretical framework, together with asymmetric GARCH-type models, allows us to draw conclusions whether differences exist between mature and emerging stock markets in terms of the degree of feedback trading as well as the behaviour of traders during stock market crashes.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 1379-1389

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:17:p:1379-1389
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  1. Gregory Koutmos & Reza Saidi, 2001. "Positive feedback trading in emerging capital markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 291-297.
  2. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March.
  3. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
  4. LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 199-219, April.
  5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  6. Wang, Jiang & Grossman, Sanford & Campbell, John, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3128710, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
  12. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
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