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Trading Behavior During Stock Market Downturns: The Dow, 1915 - 2004

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  • Siklos, Pierre L.
  • Bohl, Martin T.

Abstract

Stock markets periodically experience sharp falls with some referred to as outright crashes. The extant literature has generally resorted to survey type evidence to determine the behavior of investors during such episodes. These kind of studies come to the conclusion that fundamentals play little role in explaining sharp stock market downturns as in October 1987. We know of no econometric study that asks whether feedback, momentum or trend chasing type behavior might explain the behavior of large stock market downturns. Resorting to a feedback trader model, we estimate a variety of asymmetric GARCH-type models. Based on daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index since 1915 we find that there is evidence of positive feedback trading during episodes of stock market crashes. Hence, the econometric evidence is broadly consistent with findings based on surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Trading Behavior During Stock Market Downturns: The Dow, 1915 - 2004," Working Paper Series 2005,7, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvgra:20057
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrice Rousseau & Herve Boco & Laurent Germain, 2020. "When Overconfident Traders Meet Feedback Traders - Updated from 2016," Economics Department Working Paper Series n270-16.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2008. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited--Do we really need input prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1093-1109, September.
    3. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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