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Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation

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  • Chase Parker DeHan

Abstract

There is a large body of literature stressing the importance of developing financial markets, including stock markets, to enhance countries� growth. I argue that the relationship between stock markets and growth is exaggerated and that the simple act of opening a formal stock market is not a good predictor of whether a country will experience economic growth. While it is possible that in some instances opening a stock market can lead to increased growth, I do not find any evidence that opening a stock market has any impact. This research uses two Bayesian econometric methods, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), to discover if there are meaningful links between stock markets and growth in developing economies. Superior to traditional cross-sectional regressions, these methodologies allow for determining the true impact of certain variables. Using a similar dataset to multiple other studies, I find a zero, or weakly negative, correlation between the opening of a stock market and growth in developing countries. 82 countries and 32 independent variables were used comparing all stock market openings between 1960 and 1999 to those without a stock market on growth between 2002 and 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Chase Parker DeHan, 2012. "Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2012_08, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2012_08
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    File URL: http://economics.utah.edu/research/publications/2012_08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    2. Baier, Scott L. & Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Tamura, Robert, 2004. "Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 311-331, April.
    3. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian econometrics; stock markets; development JEL Classification: O17; E44; C11;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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