Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation
There is a large body of literature stressing the importance of developing financial markets, including stock markets, to enhance countries’ growth. I argue that the relationship between stock markets and growth is exaggerated and that the simple act of opening a formal stock market is not a good predictor of whether a country will experience economic growth. While it is possible that in some instances opening a stock market can lead to increased growth, I do not find any evidence that opening a stock market has any impact. This research uses two Bayesian econometric methods, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), to discover if there are meaningful links between stock markets and growth in developing economies. Superior to traditional cross-sectional regressions, these methodologies allow for determining the true impact of certain variables. Using a similar dataset to multiple other studies, I find a zero, or weakly negative, correlation between the opening of a stock market and growth in developing countries. 82 countries and 32 independent variables were used comparing all stock market openings between 1960 and 1999 to those without a stock market on growth between 2002 and 2007.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1645 E. Central Campus Dr. Front, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9300|
Phone: (801) 581-7481
Fax: (801) 585-5649
Web page: http://economics.utah.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter L. Rousseau & Paul Wachtel, 1998.
"Equity Markets and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, 1980-1995,"
98-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004.
"Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
- James B. Ang, 2008.
"A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, 07.
- James B. Ang, 2007. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Baier, Scott L. & Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Tamura, Robert, 2004.
"Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 311-331, April.
- Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2003. "Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Levine, Ross, 1991. " Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-65, September.
- Rati Ram, 1999. "Financial development and economic growth: Additional evidence," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 164-174.
- Harris, Richard D. F., 1997. "Stock markets and development: A re-assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 139-146, January.
- Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993.
"Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002.
"Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-Based System Matter?,"
NBER Working Papers
8982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uta:papers:dehan_2012_08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.