Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000-1, Revisited
Turkey's exchange rate based stabilization program had collapsed within just eleven months of its implementation. Unsustainable public debt dynamics and fragility of the banking system have been the main reasons blamed for the demise of the program. However, the banking sector fragility became an issue only after the economy was hit buy a liquidity crunch in November 2000. Because the central bank functioned as a currency board, an abrupt reversal of the capital inflow was responsible for the liquidity crunch. The onset of the stabilization program brought down interest rates as expected and thus created ample opportunities for speculative investors to make safe one-sided bets. Thus, in our view the real cause of the capital reversal was profit taking on the part of foreign speculative investors holding government securities who conjectured that falling interest rates had reached their limit at the time.
|Date of creation:||2004|
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- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999.
"Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
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