IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2026-106.html

The impacts of extreme weather on formal employment: Evidence from Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Danae Hernández-Cortés
  • Sophie Mathes

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of extreme weather events on local labour markets in Brazil. We combine comprehensive administrative data of the universe of formal employment during 2005-2019 with data on the most common extreme weather events in Brazil. Constructing measures of extreme weather relative to typical local conditions, we find that an additional hot day above the pre-decadal 85th (99th) percentile reduces employment by .01 (.04)% and the number of firms by .01 (.02)% at the municipality level.

Suggested Citation

  • Danae Hernández-Cortés & Sophie Mathes, 2026. "The impacts of extreme weather on formal employment: Evidence from Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2026-106-impact-extreme-weather-formal-employment.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Jeffrey A. Groen & Mark J. Kutzbach & Anne E. Polivka, 2020. "Storms and Jobs: The Effect of Hurricanes on Individuals’ Employment and Earnings over the Long Term," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(3), pages 653-685.
    3. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2025. "Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bernabé, Angélique & Diop, Boubacar, 2025. "Corrigendum to “Storms, early education and human capital” [J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 130 (2025) 103104]," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Krzysztof Karbownik & Anthony Wray, 2019. "Long-Run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 949-1007.
    4. Ishak, Phoebe W. & Gradstein, Mark, 2021. "We Don't Need No Education: The Effect of Persistent Income Shocks on Human Capital," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242368, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Juan Segundo Zapiola, 2023. "Drought Shocks and School Attendance in Tanzania," Young Researchers Working Papers 12, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2023.
    6. Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Lichtman-Sadot, Shirlee, 2019. "Connecting Disadvantaged Communities to Work and Higher Education Opportunities: Evidence from Public Transportation Penetration to Arab Towns in Israel," IZA Discussion Papers 12824, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Frijters, Paul & Johnston, David W. & Knott, Rachel & Torgler, Benno, 2021. "Resilience to Disaster: Evidence from Daily Wellbeing Data," IZA Discussion Papers 14220, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Marazyan, Karine, 2025. "The effects of rainfall shocks on divorce requests: Evidence from Colonial Senegal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 317-344.
    10. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Sivadasan, Jagadeesh & Xu, Wenjian, 2021. "Missing women in India: Gender-specific effects of early-life rainfall shocks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Theresa Thompson Chaudhry & Maha Khan & Azka Sarosh Mir, 2021. "Son‐biased fertility stopping, birth spacing, and child nutritional status in Pakistan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 712-736, May.
    13. Chan, Jeff & Karim, Ridwan, 2023. "Oil royalties and the provision of public education in Brazil," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Jerch, Rhiannon & Kahn, Matthew E. & Lin, Gary C., 2023. "Local public finance dynamics and hurricane shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Chi-Young Choi & Yu Zhang & Michelle Hummel & Qin Qian, 2025. "Reassessing the economic impacts of Hurricane Harvey on Texas: a closer look with granular analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(5), pages 5921-5945, March.
    17. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2014. "Taken by Storm: Business Financing, Survival, and Contagion in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Working Papers 1406, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 23 Oct 2014.
    18. Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "Fertility response to climate shocks," CERDI Working papers halshs-02053100, HAL.
    19. Susmita Baulia, 2018. "Is household shock a boon or bane to the utilisation of preventive healthcare for children? Evidence from Uganda," Discussion Papers 121, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    20. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Climate Shocks, Intimate Partner Violence, and the Protective Role of Climate-Resilience Projects," IZA Discussion Papers 17529, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.