We estimate and make population forecasts with Foley’s (2000) model in three different ways. The population forecasts for high, middle and low-income countries are quite good and suggest that the omitted variable bias from its simplicity is small. Estimation of the model as a system shows that indeed Malthusian behaviour - defined as increasing population growth through increasing per capita income - cannot be found for any of the income groups of the Worldbank classification nor for Sub-Saharan Africa, and also not for countries with per capita income below $1200 in a panel estimate. For world aggregate data and for the low-income countries we find increasing returns to scale, but for the other groups decreasing returns (outweighed by a positive time trend except for Sub-Saharan Africa and the u1200 group). For the panel of countries with income below $1200, per capita income is stagnant for the period 1970-2002 in spite of the positive growth rates of the period 1991-2002. The time trend is as strong as the population growth in connection with decreasing returns to scale. Together with the absence of Malthusian behaviour this seems to suggest a strong role for the population growth problem as seen by David Ricardo.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
- Lucke, Bernd & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2004. "On unit root tests in the presence of transitional growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 323-327, September.
- Foley, Duncan K., 2000. "Stabilization of human population through economic increasing returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 309-317, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2005009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Leonne Portz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.