IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Malthus irrelevant?

  • Ziesemer Thomas

    (MERIT)

We estimate and make population forecasts with Foley’s (2000) model in three different ways. The population forecasts for high, middle and low-income countries are quite good and suggest that the omitted variable bias from its simplicity is small. Estimation of the model as a system shows that indeed Malthusian behaviour - defined as increasing population growth through increasing per capita income - cannot be found for any of the income groups of the Worldbank classification nor for Sub-Saharan Africa, and also not for countries with per capita income below $1200 in a panel estimate. For world aggregate data and for the low-income countries we find increasing returns to scale, but for the other groups decreasing returns (outweighed by a positive time trend except for Sub-Saharan Africa and the u1200 group). For the panel of countries with income below $1200, per capita income is stagnant for the period 1970-2002 in spite of the positive growth rates of the period 1991-2002. The time trend is as strong as the population growth in connection with decreasing returns to scale. Together with the absence of Malthusian behaviour this seems to suggest a strong role for the population growth problem as seen by David Ricardo.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://digitalarchive.maastrichtuniversity.nl/fedora/objects/guid:696a20c4-32dc-454a-9fb8-017ddaff85a9/datastreams/ASSET1/content
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 401 Unauthorized. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Charles Bollen)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series Research Memorandum with number 009.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2005009
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  2. Foley, Duncan K., 2000. "Stabilization of human population through economic increasing returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 309-317, September.
  3. Lucke, Bernd & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2004. "On unit root tests in the presence of transitional growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 323-327, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:2005009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.