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Random Error and Simulation Models With an Unobserved Dependent Variable as applied to the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act

Most empirical simulation models used in benefit-cost or risk analysis investigate uncertainty based on variability in parameters and conditioning factors. A pure random error term is frequently omitted. Ex-ante benefit-cost analyses create a particular problem because there are not historically observed values of the dependent variable, such as net present value. An estimator for the error variance is developed based on analysis of variance measures and R-squared. When applied to a model of the net benefits of the Clean Air Act, the probability that the net present value is negative increases from .2 to 4.5 percent.

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File URL: http://www.umbc.edu/economics/wpapers/wp_09_102_CWISFarrow.pdf
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Paper provided by UMBC Department of Economics in its series UMBC Economics Department Working Papers with number 09-103.

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Length: 9 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision: 26 Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:umb:econwp:09103
Contact details of provider: Postal: UMBC Department of Economics 1000 Hilltop Circle Baltimore MD 21250, USA
Phone: 410-455-2160
Fax: 410-455-1054
Web page: http://www.umbc.edu/economics

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  1. Robert W. Hahn & Patrick M. Dudley, 2007. "How Well Does the U.S. Government Do Benefit-Cost Analysis?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 192-211, Summer.
  2. John A. List & Robert P. Berrens & Alok K. Bohara & Joe Kerkvliet, 2004. "Examining the Role of Social Isolation on Stated Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 741-752, June.
  3. repec:reg:rpubli:98 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Spash, Clive L., 2007. "Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV): Issues in combining economic and political processes to value environmental change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 690-699, September.
  5. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Eads, George C. & Hahn, Robert W. & Lave, Lester B. & Noll, Roger G. & Portney, Paul R. & Russell, Milson & Schmalensee, Richard & Smith, V. Kerry & Stavins, , 1997. "Is there a role for benefit-cost analysis in environmental, health, and safety regulation?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 195-221, May.
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