Random Error and Simulation Models With an Unobserved Dependent Variable as applied to the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act
Most empirical simulation models used in benefit-cost or risk analysis investigate uncertainty based on variability in parameters and conditioning factors. A pure random error term is frequently omitted. Ex-ante benefit-cost analyses create a particular problem because there are not historically observed values of the dependent variable, such as net present value. An estimator for the error variance is developed based on analysis of variance measures and R-squared. When applied to a model of the net benefits of the Clean Air Act, the probability that the net present value is negative increases from .2 to 4.5 percent.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:||26 Jan 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: UMBC Department of Economics 1000 Hilltop Circle Baltimore MD 21250, USA|
Web page: http://www.umbc.edu/economics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Spash, Clive L., 2007. "Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV): Issues in combining economic and political processes to value environmental change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 690-699, September.
- repec:reg:rpubli:98 is not listed on IDEAS
- Robert W. Hahn & Richard L. Schmalensee & Roger Noll & Robert Stavins & Lester B. Lave & George C. Eads & Milton Russell & V. Kerry Smith & Maureen L. Cropper & Paul R. Portney & Kenneth J. Arrow, 1996. "Benefit-Cost Analysis in Environmental, Health, and Safety Regulation," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51790, October.
- John A. List & Robert P. Berrens & Alok K. Bohara & Joe Kerkvliet, 2004.
"Examining the Role of Social Isolation on Stated Preferences,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 741-752, June.
- Robert Berrens & Alok Bohara & Joe Kerkvliet & John List, 2004. "Examining the Role of Social Isolation on Stated Preferences," Artefactual Field Experiments 00491, The Field Experiments Website.
- Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Eads, George C. & Hahn, Robert W. & Lave, Lester B. & Noll, Roger G. & Portney, Paul R. & Russell, Milson & Schmalensee, Richard & Smith, V. Kerry & Stavins, , 1997. "Is there a role for benefit-cost analysis in environmental, health, and safety regulation?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 195-221, May.
- Robert W. Hahn & Patrick M. Dudley, 2007. "How Well Does the U.S. Government Do Benefit-Cost Analysis?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 192-211, Summer.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:umb:econwp:09103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christelle Viauroux)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.