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The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa's Money Supply Under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures

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  • Kevin S. Nell

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Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to describe South Africa's money supply process along several competing, but not mutually exclusive, theoretical paradigms over the period 1966-1997. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the empirical results is that irrespective of the monetary system at the time, the money supply process in South Africa is endogenously determined. The empirical analysis further shows that the inability of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to reach predetermined M3 monetary growth targets on a consistent basis since the mid 1980s is the direct result of an endogenous money supply and not, as a previous study claims, because of an unstable M3 velocity. Although the M3 velocity is stable over the whole period 1966-1997, money income determined an endogenous money supply, so that the M3 money supply lost its effectiveness as a leading indicator for monetary policy. The policy implication is that the SARB controlled the M3 money supply indirectly over the period 1980-1997, through an increase in interest rates, and at the potential cost of a slowdown in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin S. Nell, 1999. "The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa's Money Supply Under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures," Studies in Economics 9912, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9912
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    Cited by:

    1. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D., 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Supply Process in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 17-42, October.
    2. Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.
    3. Badarudin, Z.E. & Ariff, M. & Khalid, A.M., 2013. "Post-Keynesian money endogeneity evidence in G-7 economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 146-162.
    4. M. Lopreite, 2012. "The endogenous money hypothesis and securitization: the Euro area case (1999-2010)," Economics Department Working Papers 2012-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    5. Ho Dong Ching, 2011. "Endogenous Money - A Structural Model of Monetary Base," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ52.
    6. Cifter, Atilla & Ozun, Alper, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the New Economy: Evidence from Turkey (1997-2006)," MPRA Paper 2486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yannis Panagopoulos & Aristotelis Spiliotis, 2006. "Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 85-102.
    8. C Angelis & Mj Aziakpono & A Pierre Faure, 2005. "The Transmission Of Monetary Policy Under The Repo System In South Africa: An Empirical Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 657-673, December.
    9. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    10. Trunin, P. & Vashchelyuk, N., 2015. "The Analysis of Money Supply Endogeneity in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 103-131.
    11. Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2006. "How much control does Bank of Russia have over money supply?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 131-144, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exogenous/endogenous money supply; M3 velocity; Causality tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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