IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uea/aepppr/2010_8.html

Inferential Expectations and the Missing Middle of Price Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Henckel

    (Australian National University)

  • Gordon Menzies

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Daniel Zizzo

    (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Microeconomic evidence suggests price changes are either very small, or large. The theory of inferential expectations predicts this phenomena if agents use a low test size, reflecting a reluctance to change their minds on the basis of evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Inferential Expectations and the Missing Middle of Price Changes," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 008, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    • Handle: RePEc:uea:aepppr:2010_8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ueaeco.github.io/working-papers/papers/afe/UEA-AFE-008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    3. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    6. Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behaviour in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 869-893, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2007. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Insu Kim, 2021. "Incomplete Price Adjustment and Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1337-1371, September.
    4. Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 416, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Borraz, Fernando & Livan, Giacomo & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Picardo, Pablo, 2022. "Price, sales, and the business cycle: Microeconomic evidence," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    6. Hahn, Volker & Marenčák, Michal, 2020. "Price points and price dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 127-144.
    7. M. Utku Özmen & Orhun Sevinç, 2016. "Price Rigidity in Turkey: Evidence from Micro Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-1045, April.
    8. Adam Reiff & Peter Karadi, 2011. "Large Shocks in Menu Cost Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 884, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Easaw Joshy & Golinelli Roberto, 2010. "Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, November.
    10. Marcelle Chauvet & Insu Kim, 2010. "Microfoundations of inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Alvarez, Fernando & Lippi, Francesco & ,, 2013. "Small and large price changes and the propagation of monetary shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Barrdear, John, 2015. "Towards a new Keynesian theory of the price level," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86315, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 235-281.
    14. Kenza Benhima & Isabella Blengini, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 956-975.
    15. Carvalho, Carlos & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2015. "Selection and monetary non-neutrality in time-dependent pricing models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 141-156.
    16. Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Asymmetric (S,s) Pricing: Implications for Monetary Policy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 177-204.
    17. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    18. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    19. Marco Bonomo & Marcelo Medeiros & Arnildo Correa, 2011. "Estimating Strategic Complementarity in a State-Dependent Pricing Model," 2011 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uea:aepppr:2010_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cara Liggins (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esueauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.