Predicting Stock Volatility Using After-Hours Information
We use realized volatilities based on after hours high frequency returns to predict next day volatility. We extend GARCH and long-memory forecasting models to include additional information: the whole night, the preopen, the postclose realized variance, and the overnight squared return. For four NASDAQ stocks (MSFT, AMGN, CSCO, and YHOO) we find that the inclusion of the preopen variance can improve the out-of-sample forecastability of the next day conditional day volatility. Additionally, we find that the postclose variance and the overnight squared return do not provide any predictive power for the next day conditional volatility. Our findings support the results of prior studies that traders trade for non-information reasons in the postclose period and trade for information reasons in the preopen period.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Box 353330, Seattle, WA 98193-3330|
Web page: http://www.econ.washington.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
- John Y. Campbell, 2001.
"Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
- John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Charles Cao & Eric Ghysels & Frank Hatheway, 2000. "Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from the Nasdaq Preopening," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1339-1365, 06.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," NBER Technical Working Papers 0279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jan Beran & Dirk Ocker, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-13, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2002. "SEMIFAR models--a semiparametric approach to modelling trends, long-range dependence and nonstationarity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 393-419, August.
- Tim Bollerslev & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "High-Frequency Data, Frequency Domain Inference, And Volatility Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 596-602, November.
- Jonathan H. Wright & Tim Bollerslev, 1999. "High frequency data, frequency domain inference and volatility forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 649, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2009-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Goldblatt)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.