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Bootstrap Tests for Structural Breaks When the Regressors and Error Term are Nonstationary

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  • Dong Jin Lee

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

This paper considers tests for structural breaks in linear models when the regressors and the serially dependent error process are unstable. The set of models contains various economic circumstances such as the structural breaks in the regressors and/or the error variance, and a linear trend model with I(0)/I(1) error. We show that the existing heteroscedasticity robust tests and the fixed regressor bootstrap method of Hansen (2000) have severe size distortion problem even in the asymptotics. We suggest a method which combines the fixed regressor bootstrap and the sieve-wild bootstrap method to nonparametrically approximate the serially dependent unstable error process. The suggested method is shown to asymptotically replicates the true distribution of the existing tests under various circumstances. Monte Carlo experiments show significant improvements both in the size and the power properties. Once the size is controlled by the bootstrap, Wald type tests have better power properties relative to LM type tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong Jin Lee, 2011. "Bootstrap Tests for Structural Breaks When the Regressors and Error Term are Nonstationary," Working papers 2011-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2011-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Changes in Variability of the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 16, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    3. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1998. "Sources of nonmonotonic power when testing for a shift in mean of a dynamic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 283-299, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong Jin Lee, 2016. "Parametric and Semi-Parametric Efficient Tests for Parameter Instability," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 451-475, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural break; sieve bootstrap; fixed regressor bootstrap; robust test; break in linear trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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