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Simulation of the Effects of the Economic Crisis and Response Policies on Children in West and Central Africa: The Case of Burkina Faso

Author

Listed:
  • Lacina Balma
  • John Cockburn
  • Ismaël Fofana
  • Samuel Kaboré
  • Luca Tiberti
  • UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre. MONEE project
  • UNICEF Regional Office for West and Central Africa

Abstract

Burkina Faso’s hard earned economic gains in recent years have been eroded by the 2008-09 world financial and economic crisis. The country will particularly feel the effects of the world economic crisis due to its close links with the world economy. Most of the adverse effects are transmitted to households then passed onto children. The situation of children principally depends on the monetary and non-monetary wellbeing of their household. This, together with their greater vulnerability, means that children are at risk of suffering more, and for longer, from the impacts of the crisis. It is therefore crucial to understand and anticipate the effects that the crisis may have on children in Burkina Faso and to propose options for social protection to counter these effects. To this end, we propose a macro-micro economic approach. Macro-micro economic analysis uses a general calculable equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impacts of various transmission channels of the crisis to the Burkinabe economy. The results of these simulations are then used for the micro-econometric analysis, which integrates individual and household economic behaviour to evaluate the impact of the crisis on child welfare. A monetary transfer policy targeting poor children appears to be the most effective at reversing the negative effects of the crisis and returning to the trend that would have existed without the crisis. Such a policy, financed by external aid and with a budget of 1% of GDP, re-establishes the trend that monetary poverty would have followed in the absence of a crisis and even leads to a reduction in hunger. It also limits the crisis’ adverse effects on school enrolment, child labour and sick children’s access to modern health care services. A universal (non-targeted) variant of this transfer policy for 0-5 year-olds has similar results and is easier to enact. Policies which subsidize food and cereals, as well as monetary transfer policies for the Centre and Mouhoun regions (the areas most affected by the August-September 2009 floods) were also analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Lacina Balma & John Cockburn & Ismaël Fofana & Samuel Kaboré & Luca Tiberti & UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre. MONEE project & UNICEF Regional Office for West and Central Africa, 2010. "Simulation of the Effects of the Economic Crisis and Response Policies on Children in West and Central Africa: The Case of Burkina Faso," Papers inwopa615, Innocenti Working Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa615
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Cockburn & Ismaël Fofana & Luca Tiberti, 2010. "Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy. Responses on Children in West and Central Africa," Working Papers MPIA 2010-10, PEP-MPIA.
    2. Sami Bibi & John Cockburn & Ismaël Fofana & Luca Tiberti, 2010. "Impacts of the Global Crisis and Policy Responses on Child Well-being: A macro-micro simulation framework," Papers inwopa602, Innocenti Working Papers.
    3. Stephany Griffith-Jones & José Antonio Ocampo, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Developing Countries," Working Papers 53, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2013. "Burkina Faso : Perceived Shocks, Vulnerability, Food Insecurity, and Poverty," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15988, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central africa; child labour; child poverty; education; health; hunger; social protection; west africa; world economics;

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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