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A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • F. Blasques

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • S.J. Koopman

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • G. Mingoli

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • S. Telg

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are anticipative, that is, they are generated by an extreme shock in the forward- looking dynamics. In particular, the test uses both path level deviations and growth rates to assess the presence of a bubble of given duration and size, at any moment of time. We show that the distribution of the test statistic can be either analytically determined or numerically approximated, depending on the error distribution. Size and power properties of the test are analyzed in controlled Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical application is presented for a monthly oil price index. It demonstrates the ability of the test to detect bubbles and to provide valuable insights in terms of risk assessments in the spirit of Value-at-Risk.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Blasques & S.J. Koopman & G. Mingoli & S. Telg, 2024. "A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-036/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
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    6. Alain Hecq & Elisa Voisin, 2023. "Predicting Crashes in Oil Prices During The Covid-19 Pandemic with Mixed Causal-Noncausal Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 209-233, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    noncausality; bubbles; testing; date-stamping; risk assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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