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The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ferguson

    (Institute for New Economic Thinking)

  • Benjamin Page

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jacob Rothschild

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jie Chen

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Arturo Chang

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using survey data from the American National Election Survey and aggregate data on Congressional districts, it assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s `Populist` candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role in the campaign and that social factors such as race or gender suffice to explain the outcome. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important influences, the paper shows how various economic considerations helped Trump win the Republican primary and then led significant blocs of voters to shift from supporting Democrats or abstaining in 2012 to vote for him. It also presents striking evidence of the importance of political money and Senators` `reverse coattails` in the dramatic final result.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ferguson & Benjamin Page & Jacob Rothschild & Jie Chen & Arturo Chang, 2018. "The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016," Working Papers Series 83, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:83
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306267
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferguson, Thomas & Jorgensen, Paul & Chen, Jie, 2022. "How money drives US congressional elections: Linear models of money and outcomes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 527-545.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political economy; voting; 2016 presidential election; Donald Trump; Populism; political parties; political money; international economic policy; free trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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