IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/thk/wpaper/83.html

The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ferguson

    (Institute for New Economic Thinking)

  • Benjamin Page

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jacob Rothschild

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jie Chen

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Arturo Chang

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using survey data from the American National Election Survey and aggregate data on Congressional districts, it assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s `Populist` candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role in the campaign and that social factors such as race or gender suffice to explain the outcome. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important influences, the paper shows how various economic considerations helped Trump win the Republican primary and then led significant blocs of voters to shift from supporting Democrats or abstaining in 2012 to vote for him. It also presents striking evidence of the importance of political money and Senators` `reverse coattails` in the dramatic final result.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ferguson & Benjamin Page & Jacob Rothschild & Jie Chen & Arturo Chang, 2018. "The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016," Working Papers Series 83, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:83
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_83-Ferguson-et-al.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.3306267?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. William Lazonick, 2016. "The Value-Extracting CEO: How Executive Stock-Based Pay Undermines Investment in Productive Capabilities," Working Papers Series 54, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    3. Servaas Storm, 2017. "The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation and the Vanishing Middle Class," Working Papers Series 55, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    4. Michael Tesler, 2012. "The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 690-704, July.
    5. Peter Temin, 2015. "The American Dual Economy: Race, Globalization, and the Politics of Exclusion," Working Papers Series 26, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Lance Taylor & Özlem Ömer, 2019. "Race to the Bottom: Low Productivity, Market Power, and Lagging Wages," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Stokes, Donald E. & Campbell, Angus & Miller, Warren E., 1958. "Components of Electoral Decision," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 367-387, June.
    8. Carl Benedikt Frey & Thor Berger & Chinchih Chen, 2018. "Political machinery: did robots swing the 2016 US presidential election?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 418-442.
    9. Servaas Storm, 2017. "The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation, and the Vanishing Middle Class," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 169-210, October.
    10. William Lazonick, 2017. "The Functions of the Stock Market and the Fallacies of Shareholder Value," Working Papers Series 58, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    11. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Popov, 2025. "Is Globalization Coming to an End Due to the Rise in Income Inequality?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Ferguson, Thomas & Jorgensen, Paul & Chen, Jie, 2022. "How money drives US congressional elections: Linear models of money and outcomes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 527-545.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2018. "Industrial Structure and Party Competition in an Age of Hunger Games:Donald Trump and the 2016 Presidential Election Donald Trump and the 2016 Presidential Election," Working Papers Series 66, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. Milenko Popović, 2018. "Technological Progress, Globalization, and Secular Stagnation," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(1), pages 59-100.
    3. Schiavone, Ansel, 2023. "Labor market concentration and labor share dynamics for US regional industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Dariusz Cezary Kotlewski, 2023. "The soundness of returning to manufacturing through the lens of productivity accounting," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 253-274.
    5. Baccaro, Lucio & Howell, Chris, 2017. "Unhinged: Industrial relations liberalization and capitalist instability," MPIfG Discussion Paper 17/19, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    6. Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2021. "What has driven the delinking of wages from productivity? A political economy-based investigation for high-income economies," Working Papers PKWP2104, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    7. Keil, Sascha, 2024. "Competing for manufacturing value added: How strong is competitive cost pressure on sectoral level?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 197-212.
    8. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2018. "Italy’s Price Competitiveness: An Empirical Assessment Through Export Elasticities," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 421-462, November.
    9. Aina Gallego & Thomas Kurer & Nikolas Schöll, 2018. "Not so disruptive after all: How workplace digitalization affects political preferences," Economics Working Papers 1623, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Lance Taylor & Özlem Ömer, 2019. "Race to the Bottom: Low Productivity, Market Power, and Lagging Wages," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 1-20, January.
    11. Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    12. Alrababah, Ala & Delouis-Jost, Maelle & Gauthier, Germain & Polak, Adam, 2025. "Cycling through Elections: The Political Consequences of the Tour de France," SocArXiv fj4vh_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Bulfone, Fabio & Ergen, Timur & Kalaitzake, Manolis, 2022. "No strings attached: Corporate welfare, state intervention, and the issue of conditionality," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/2, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    14. Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2023. "The decoupling between labour compensation and productivity in high‐income countries: Why is the nexus broken?," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 425-463, June.
    15. Brey, Björn, 2024. "The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    16. Michalis Nikiforos, 2020. "Crisis, Austerity, and Fiscal Expenditure in Greece: Recent Experience and Future Prospects in the Post-COVID-19 Era," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_151, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Tertiarization, productivity and aggregate demand: evidence-based policies for European countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1429-1465, November.
    18. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948–2019)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    19. Tim Jackson & Peter A Victor, 2021. "Confronting inequality in the “new normal”: Hyper‐capitalism, proto‐socialism, and post‐pandemic recovery," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 504-516, May.
    20. Jeffrey, Karen & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2024. "Automation anxiety, fairness perceptions, and redistribution: Past experiences condition the response to future job loss," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 174-190.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pia Malaney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inetnus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.