Objective versus subjective assessments: The IPCC treatment of the total economic impact of climate change
I apply restricted Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression to derive the total economic impact as a function of climate change. I restrict the sample to information known at the time of Second, Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There has been no statistically significant change in the estimates over time. Nonetheless, subsequent assessment reports convey different messages in their Technical Summaries, with even greater deviations in the Summaries for Policy Makers. The IPCC should rely more strongly on objective methods.
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