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The Hazard of Being an English Football League Manager: Empirical Estimates from the 2002/3 Season

Author

Listed:
  • Ray Bachan

    (University of Brighton)

  • Barry Reilly

    (University of Sussex)

  • Robert Witt

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model hazard rates for club managers in the 2002/3 season. Nearly one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club in that season. We model the hazard on the basis of a spell at risk, rather than the individual, using a standard logistic model. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within the discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager’s exit. A variety of individual specific human capital covariates were found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects was detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Bachan & Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2005. "The Hazard of Being an English Football League Manager: Empirical Estimates from the 2002/3 Season," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1605, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1605
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2005/DP16-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    2. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    3. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    4. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Lucas M. Besters & Jan C. Ours & Martin A. Tuijl, 2016. "Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 335-356, September.
    6. van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin, 2014. "In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams," CEPR Discussion Papers 10191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Thomas (T.L.P.R.) Peeters & Stefan Szymanski & Marko Terviö, 2017. "The inefficient advantage of experience in the market for football managers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-116/VII, Tinbergen Institute.

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