What drives the change in UK household energy expenditure and associated CO2 emissions? Implication and forecast to 2020
Given the amount of direct and indirect CO2 emissions attributable to UK households, policy makers need a good understanding of the structure of household energy expenditure and the impact of both economic and non-economic factors when considering policies to reduce future emissions. To help achieve this, the Structural Time Series Model is used here to estimate UK ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ energy expenditure equations for 1964-2009. This allows for the estimation of a stochastic trend to measure the underlying energy expenditure trend and hence capture the non-trivial impact of ‘non-economic factors’ on household ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ energy expenditure; as well as the impact of the traditional ‘economic factors’ of income and price. The estimated equations are used to show that given current expectations, CO2 attributable to ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ expenditures will not fall by 29% (or 40%) in 2020 compared to 1990, and is therefore not consistent with the latest UK total CO2 reduction target. Hence, the message for policy makers is that in addition to economic incentives such as taxes, which might be needed to help restrain future energy expenditure, other policies that attempt to influence lifestyles and behaviours also need to be considered.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Publication status:||Published in Applied Energy, 94, June 2012, pp. 202–214. (Revised Version)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH, UK|
Phone: +44(0)1483 686956
Fax: +44(0)1483 689548
Web page: http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Druckman, Angela & Jackson, Tim, 2009. "The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2066-2077, May.
- Brannlund, Runar & Ghalwash, Tarek & Nordstrom, Jonas, 2007.
"Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: Effects on consumption and emissions,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-17, January.
- Brännlund, Runar & Ghalwash, Tarek & Nordström, Jonas, 2004. "Increased Energy Efficiency and the Rebound Effect: Effects on consumption and emissions," Umeå Economic Studies 642, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Broadstock, David C. & Hunt, Lester C., 2010. "Quantifying the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1559-1565, March.
- David C Broadstock & Lester C Hunt, 2009. "Quantifying the Impact of Exogenous Non-Economic Factors on UK Transport Oil Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 123, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
- Weber, Christoph & Perrels, Adriaan, 2000. "Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 549-566, July.
- Hunt, Lester C. & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2005. "Primary energy demand in Japan: an empirical analysis of long-term trends and future CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1409-1424, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)