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Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Majid Ahmadian

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran)

  • Mona Chitnis

    (Research Group on Lifestyles, Values and Environment (RESOLVE) & Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

This study estimates a gasoline demand function for Iran using the structural time series model over the period 1968-2002 and uses it to estimate the change in social welfare for 2003 and 2004 of a higher gasoline price policy. It is found that short and long run demand price elasticities are inelastic, although the response is greater in the long run. Hence, social welfare is estimated to fall because of the higher gasoline price (ceteris paribus). However, allowing all variables in the model to change, social welfare is estimated to increase since the changes in the other variables more than compensate for the negative effects of the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Majid Ahmadian & Mona Chitnis & Lester C Hunt, 2007. "Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Iran," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 117, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:117
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/seeds/SEEDS117.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
    2. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu Barde Abdullahi, 2014. "Modeling Petroleum Product Demand in Nigeria Using Structural Time Series Model (STSM) Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 427-441.
    2. Gately, Dermot & Al-Yousef, Nourah & Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H., 2013. "The rapid growth of OPEC′s domestic oil consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 844-859.
    3. Houri Jafari, H. & Baratimalayeri, A., 2008. "The crisis of gasoline consumption in the Iran's transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2536-2543, July.
    4. Aldubyan, Mohammad & Gasim, Anwar, 2021. "Energy price reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the economic and environmental impacts and understanding the demand response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    5. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Broadstock, David C. & Chitnis, Mona & Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy, 2010. "Asymmetric price responses and the underlying energy demand trend: Are they substitutes or complements? Evidence from modelling OECD aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1157-1164, September.
    6. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    7. Atalla, Tarek N. & Gasim, Anwar A. & Hunt, Lester C., 2018. "Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 123-133.
    8. Afshin Ghorbani & Mohammad Reza Rahimpour & Younes Ghasemi & Sona Raeissi, 2018. "The Biodiesel of Microalgae as a Solution for Diesel Demand in Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2021. "Modelling U.S. gasoline demand: A structural time series analysis with asymmetric price responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Nourah Al Yousef, 2013. "Demand for Oil Products in OPEC Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177.
    11. Raghoo, Pravesh & Surroop, Dinesh, 2020. "Price and income elasticities of oil demand in Mauritius: An empirical analysis using cointegration method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2009. "An empirical analysis of petroleum demand for Indonesia: An application of the cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4391-4396, November.
    13. Moshiri, Saeed, 2015. "The effects of the energy price reform on households consumption in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 177-188.
    14. Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid & Hajiani, Parviz, 2014. "Price and Income Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in Iran: Using Static, ECM, and Dynamic Models in Short, Intermediate, and Long Run," MPRA Paper 70054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mir Hossein Mousavi, 2015. "An Estimation of Natural Gas Demand in Household Sector of Iran; the Structural Time Series Approach," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2804383, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    16. Shamaila Aziz & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen & Sofia Anwar, 2016. "Impact of Rising Energy Prices on Consumer’s Welfare: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 605-618.
    17. Muhammad Atta-ul-Islam Abrar & Muhsin Ali & Uzma Bashir & Karim Khan, 2019. "Energy Pricing Policies and Consumers’ Welfare: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, Jan-June.

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