Gasoline Demand, Pricing Policy and Social Welfare in Iran
This study estimates a gasoline demand function for Iran using the structural time series model over the period 1968-2002 and uses it to estimate the change in social welfare for 2003 and 2004 of a higher gasoline price policy. It is found that short and long run demand price elasticities are inelastic, although the response is greater in the long run. Hence, social welfare is estimated to fall because of the higher gasoline price (ceteris paribus). However, allowing all variables in the model to change, social welfare is estimated to increase since the changes in the other variables more than compensate for the negative effects of the policy.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in OPEC Review, 31(2), 2007, pp. 105-124. (Revised Version with different title)|
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Web page: http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk
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- Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
- Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
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