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Testing for long-run "sustainability": Genuine Savings estimates for B ritain, 1760-2000

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  • Greasley, David
  • Hanley, Nicholas
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Oxley, Les
  • Warde, Paul

Abstract

Genuine Savings has been proposed as an economic indicator of sustainable development, and has been the focus of World Bank sustainability assessments for countries globally. However, whilst the theoretical basis for Genuine Savings is well-established (Arrow et al, 2011; Hamilton and Withagen, 2007; Pezzey, 2004), its ability to forecast long-run trends in well-being remains un-tested. In this paper, we take a first step towards such an assessment by constructing a time series of estimates for produced, natural and human capital for Britain over the period 1760-2000, and use them to derive estimates of Genuine Savings. The next step in the project will be to compare these Genuine Savings estimates with a range of well-being indicators to answer the question: does positive Genuine Savings predict improvements in average well-be ing?

Suggested Citation

  • Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2012. "Testing for long-run "sustainability": Genuine Savings estimates for B ritain, 1760-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2012-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2012-05
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/6365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rosés, Joan R., 2010. "Human capital and economic growth in Spain, 1850-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 520-532, October.
    2. John C. V. Pezzey & Nick Hanley & Nick Hanley & Karen Turner & Dugald Tinch, 2003. "Augmented Sustainability Measures for Scotland," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0302, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    3. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 317-353, June.
    4. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    5. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    6. d'Autume, Antoine & Schubert, Katheline, 2008. "Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 260-274, November.
    7. Trinh Le & John Gibson & Les Oxley, 2006. "A Forward-Looking Measure Of The Stock Of Human Capital In New Zealand," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 593-609, September.
    8. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    9. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magnus Lindmark & Lars Fredrik Andersson, 2016. "An historical wealth assessment -- measuring the Swedish national wealth for the nineteenth and twentieth centuries," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(2), pages 122-137, June.
    2. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2012. "How Environmental Pollution from Fossil Fuels can be included in measures of National Accounts and Estimates of Genuine Savings," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2012-16, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    3. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    4. Blum, Matthias & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2013. "Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Genuine Savings; Sustainability; Economic History; Britain;

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