The impact of layoffs on labour market outcomes of workers in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports

Recent trade tensions between Canada and the United States have raised questions around the impact of potential job losses related to tariffs. While the Canada–U.S. trade tensions are unique to the present day, layoffs in any industry are not. Investigating how workers in industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports (IDUSCEXs) have historically fared following job loss could shed light on the adaptability of workers in these industries. The majority of employees aged 25 to 54 who were laid off from IDUSCEXs over the 2013-to-2016 period were re-employed in other industries in the years following job loss. However, they fared worse economically in at least the first three years compared with their counterparts from industries not dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports, excluding public administration, educational services, and health care and social assistance (INDUSCEXOs), in relative and absolute terms. The results also indicate that although jobs in IDUSCEXs were more likely to be unionized or have employer-sponsored pension plans compared with jobs in INDUSCEXOs, men displaced from IDUSCEXs were less likely to secure jobs with these features in the years following layoffs compared with men from INDUSCEXOs.