The importance of volatility in inflow in a deregulated hydro-dominated power market
In 2002/2003, the Nordic hydro-dominated power market faced a short-term supply shock. In autumn, precipitation and inflow were unusually low. As a result, there were record high prices in the following winter. Questions were raised whether the deregulated market creates sufficient incentives to invest in new production and transmission capacity to secure supply when overall inflow fails. One fear is that the market could break down when precipitation and inflow fails during the whole year, which is more probable than a short-term extreme inflow failure. We apply a market model to simulate the market effects with two events: i) an overall inflow shortage 25 per cent lower than normal, and ii) a seasonally biased inflow shortage, as happened in 2002/03. The 25 per cent low inflow scenario shows that significantly higher price effects are likely to occur in the Nordic power market in the future than in the past. However, the price effects are less than one would expect when compared to 2002/03, but prices remain higher for a longer period of time. The simulations do not indicate any problems in the functioning of the market within these scenarios.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
Fax: +47 - 62 88 55 95
Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jason P. Martinek & Michael J. Orlando, 2002. "Neither Lucky Nor Good - The Case of Electricity Deregulation in California," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 75-82.
- M. Pollitt, 2004.
"Electricity reform in Chile. Lessons for developing countries,"
Competition and Regulation in Network Industries,
Intersentia, vol. 5(3), pages 221-263, September.
- Pollitt, M.G., 2004. "Electricity Reform in Chile: Lessons for Developing Countries," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0448, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael Pollitt, 2004. "Electricity Reform in Chile Lessons for Developing Countries," Working Papers 0416, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel, 1999. "Market Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration Measures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 65-88.
- Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James & Knittel, Chris, 1999. "Market Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration Measures," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31548, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2788.
- Severin Borenstein & James. Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 2000. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in A Deregulated Electricity Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 294-325, Summer.
- Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 1997. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James & Stoft, Steven, 2000. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13145, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (L MaasÃ¸)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.