Uncertainty, Optimal Specialization and Growth
We present a novel argument demonstrating that when trade is characterized by uncertainty the comparative advantages doctrine is misleading and a positive level of diversification is growth enhancing. Applying a result developed in the mathematical biological literature, we show that, in Ricardian trade model in which capital available for investment depends on previous periods returns, incomplete specialization is optimal. We also demonstrate that, in this case, the decentralized solution is characterized by an inefficiently high level of specialization with respect to the social optimal one. Finally, we present a taxation scheme that, reconciling individual incentives and social optimum, is able to induce individual agents to adopt the optimal specialization strategy, i.e. the one that maximizes the country growth rate.
|Date of creation:||14 Feb 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza dei Martiri della Liberta, 33, 56127 Pisa|
Web page: http://www.lem.sssup.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruffin, Roy J., 1974. "International trade under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 243-259, August.
- Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1991.
"International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A. & Romer, Paul M., 1991. "International trade with endogenous technological change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 971-1001, May.
- Redding, S., 1997.
"Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade,"
140, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Redding, Stephen, 1999. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991.
"Increasing Returns and Economic Geography,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1996.
"Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
- Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1994. "Was Prometheus unbound by chance? Risk, diversification and growth," Economics Working Papers 98, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- David M. G. Newbery & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12.
- Saint-Paul, G., 1990.
"Technological Choice, Financial Markets and Economic Development,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-30, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods,"
178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- Samuel Bowles & Ugo Pagano, 2003.
"Economic Integration, Cultural Standardization and the Politics of Social Insurance,"
Department of Economics University of Siena
408, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
- Pagano Ugo & Samuel Bowles, 2003. "Economic Integration, Cultural Standardization,and the Politics of Social Insurance," Working Papers wp64, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- S. Lael Brainard, 1991. "Protecting Losers: Optimal Diversification, Insurance, and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 3773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1996.
"Social Insurance, Incentives and Risk Taking,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19834, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Brainard, William C. & Cooper, Richard N., 1968. "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2006/05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.