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Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period

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  • Sandrine Levasseur

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Our findings indicate that the former split of CEECs in terms of business cycles synchronization with the euro area does not hold as soon as the recent period is taken into account. While Slovenia and Poland continue to appear as suitable EMU members due to their high – and growing – GDP co-movements with the euro area, Hungary does no longer belong to this group. By contrast, Slovakia has presented for few years a high degree of business cycle synchronization with the euro area – comparable to the one of Slovenia – which has not been captured by previous empirical studies. Our findings show also that Lithuania does not participate in the general trend of higher GDP co-movements with the euro area. Furthermore, an analysis by GDP components reveals that internal components rather than external ones predominantly account for growing GDP synchronization between CEECs and the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Levasseur, 2008. "Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period," Sciences Po publications 2008-11, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    4. Peter Benczur & Attila Ratfai, 2010. "Economic fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe: the facts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3279-3292.
    5. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2005. "The Characteristics of Business Cycles in Selected European Emerging Market Economies," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2005_7, UNECE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2014. "The Welfare Cost of the EMU for Transition Countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(4), pages 446-473.
    2. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    3. Gilson, Nathalie alias Natacha & Labondance, Fabien, 2013. "Synchronisation des chocs d’offre et de demande en Europe – Un après-euro ou une après-crise des subprimes ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 155-189, Septembre.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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