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Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period

Listed author(s):
  • Sandrine Levasseur

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Our findings indicate that the former split of CEECs in terms of business cycles synchronization with the euro area does not hold as soon as the recent period is taken into account. While Slovenia and Poland continue to appear as suitable EMU members due to their high – and growing – GDP co-movements with the euro area, Hungary does no longer belong to this group. By contrast, Slovakia has presented for few years a high degree of business cycle synchronization with the euro area – comparable to the one of Slovenia – which has not been captured by previous empirical studies. Our findings show also that Lithuania does not participate in the general trend of higher GDP co-movements with the euro area. Furthermore, an analysis by GDP components reveals that internal components rather than external ones predominantly account for growing GDP synchronization between CEECs and the euro area.

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6141/resources/wp2008-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2008-11.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6141
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  1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
  2. Peter Benczur & Attila Ratfai, 2010. "Economic fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe: the facts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3279-3292.
  3. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2005. "The Characteristics of Business Cycles in Selected European Emerging Market Economies," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2005_7, UNECE.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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