The ability of the ECB to control inflation in a global environment
In this paper, we study the global determinants of euro area inflation and show that they are large - they explain around 50% of inflation dynamics – and make it impossible for the ECB to fully control headline inflation. Nevertheless, we show that the ECB retains some control on the domestic part of euro area inflation. We therefore argue in favour of a change in the inflation target pursued by the ECB. Unless a change occurs, the ECB should promote cooperation with other central banks in order to match its CPI inflation target at 2% as 40 to 50% of CPI determinants is related to foreign yields and foreign output growths.
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- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010.
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 537, European Central Bank.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Mojon, Benoît, 2006. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series WP-08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
- Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2010. "Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 343-375, Winter. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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