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The ability of the ECB to control inflation in a global environment

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Fabien Labondance

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the global determinants of euro area inflation and show that they are large - they explain around 50% of inflation dynamics – and make it impossible for the ECB to fully control headline inflation. Nevertheless, we show that the ECB retains some control on the domestic part of euro area inflation. We therefore argue in favour of a change in the inflation target pursued by the ECB. Unless a change occurs, the ECB should promote cooperation with other central banks in order to match its CPI inflation target at 2% as 40 to 50% of CPI determinants is related to foreign yields and foreign output growths.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The ability of the ECB to control inflation in a global environment," Working Papers hal-03472141, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03472141
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03472141
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2010. "Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 343-375, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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