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Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Migration through the Agricultural Channel: Evidence from District Level Panel Data from Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Kazi Iqbal
  • Paritosh K Roy

Abstract

This paper studies how changes in climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall impact migration through agriculture. We use district level data (64 districts) for 3 inter-census periods (1974-1980, 1981-1990 and 1991-2000) to analyze historical migration related outcomes. We find that fluctuations in temperature and rainfall contributed to a decline in agricultural productivity as measured by revenues from agriculture. Fixed Effect and Instrumental Variable estimations show that about one standard deviation decrease in real per capita agricultural revenue increases the net out-migration rate by 1.4 to 2.4 percent, controlling for unobserved effects for districts and years. Using our estimates and available forecasts in the literature, we predict that the net out-migration rate will be about 22 percent higher in 2030 than in 1990, assuming the variability in temperature stays stable and there are no behavioural responses from the farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazi Iqbal & Paritosh K Roy, "undated". "Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Migration through the Agricultural Channel: Evidence from District Level Panel Data from Bangladesh," Working papers 84, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:snd:wpaper:84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Morduch, Jonathan, 1999. "Between the State and the Market: Can Informal Insurance Patch the Safety Net?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 187-207, August.
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