Estimating Quarterly GDP for the Interwar UK Economy: An Application to the Employment Function
Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures for the period 1920.1 to 1938.4. This series is valuable in that it can be used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output which is not possible when we use industrial production directly as our quarterly measure of aggregate demand.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:||Mar 2003|
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- Hatton, T J, 1983. "Unemployment Benefits and the Macroeconomics of the Interwar Labour Market: A Further Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 486-505, November.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1983.
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Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
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- Tom Doan, "undated". "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
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