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Estimating Quarterly GDP for the Interwar UK Economy: An Application to the Employment Function

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Hayes
  • Paul Turner

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures for the period 1920.1 to 1938.4. This series is valuable in that it can be used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output which is not possible when we use industrial production directly as our quarterly measure of aggregate demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hayes & Paul Turner, 2003. "Estimating Quarterly GDP for the Interwar UK Economy: An Application to the Employment Function," Working Papers 2003003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2003003
    as

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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/68/SERP2003003.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/68/SERP2003003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    2. Hatton, T J, 1983. "Unemployment Benefits and the Macroeconomics of the Interwar Labour Market: A Further Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 486-505, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chow-Lin procedure; interwar GDP; employment function.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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