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Post-communist recessions re-examined

Author

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  • Tomasz Marek Mickiewicz

    () (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies)

Abstract

We apply simple econometric methods to evaluate the factors that determined the length and depth of the post-Communist recessions. Early implementation of the stabilisation and liberalisation programmes made the recessions weaker. Wars had strong negative impact. Initial trade dependence made recessions more serious. The results are discussed with reference to the existing explanations of the 'transitional recessions', in particular Calvo and Coricelli (1992, 1993), Blanchard and Kremer (1997) and Blanchard (1997).

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Marek Mickiewicz, 2005. "Post-communist recessions re-examined," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 55, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
  • Handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:55
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    File URL: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/17514/1/17514.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 229-250.
    2. Gros,Daniel & Steinherr,Alfred, 2004. "Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826389, November.
    3. Daniel Gros & Marc Suhrcke, 2000. "Ten Years After: What is Special about Transition Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 327, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 793-836.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1992. "Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 71-90, January.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    7. Peter Christoffersen & Peter Doyle, 2000. "From Inflation to Growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 421-451, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1057, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Michal Franta, 2016. "The Effect of Nonlinearity between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 147-166, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition; Recession JEL classification numbers: P24; P30;

    JEL classification:

    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P30 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General

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