Household Saving in Poland
The author estimates determinants of household saving in Poland in years 1994.1997. It turns out that the household saving rate depends strongly on household income. However, the household saving function from disposable income is not strictly linear. It "kinks" upwards at the point where household income is 1.5 times higher than the average income. The saving profiles of households in Poland partially resemble those that would follow from the life cycle theory. The ratio of beneficiares to contribution payers in Poland is 2.5 times higher than the ratio of population of retirement age to economically active people and 1.5 higher than the ratio of average retirement lifetime to average working lifetime. Such a situation gives rise to very high costs of the former pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system in comparison to fully funded systems. The author compares model costs of both systems over the horizon of next 30.40 years and forecasts an equalisation of the above ratios by about 2030. The impact of the pension system reform on savings will depend on many counteracting factors.
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