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Macroeconomic effects of loss aversion in a signal extraction model

  • Giuseppe Ciccarone
  • Enrico Marchetti

We add some elements of prospect theory to an analytically tractable version of Lucas’s “islands†model and show that the inclusion of reference dependence, declining sensitivity and loss aversion into the agents’ utility function leads to three main results. First, the equilibrium labor supply and the natural level of output are negatively affected by the presence of behavioral elements, whereas the cyclical response of output to a monetary shock remains unaltered. Second, the expected utility of a representative agent is generally lower than that obtained when loss aversion is absent. Third, the presence of loss aversion eliminates the paradoxical increase in expected utility that may be generated, in the standard model, by an increase in monetary policy uncertainty.

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Paper provided by University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics in its series Working Papers with number 148.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp148
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  1. Nicholas BARBERIS & Ming HUANG & Tano SANTOS, 2000. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," FAME Research Paper Series rp16, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  2. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
  3. Polemarchakis, H. M. & Weiss, L., 1977. "On the desirability of a "totally random" monetary policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 345-350, August.
  4. Kobberling, Veronika & Wakker, Peter P., 2005. "An index of loss aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 119-131, May.
  5. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Does Money Illusion Matter?," IEW - Working Papers 012, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  6. Gerald S. Oettinger, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Daily Labor Supply of Stadium Vendors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 360-392, April.
  7. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  8. Camerer, Colin & Babcock, Linda & Loewenstein, George & Thaler, Richard, 1996. "Labor Supply of New York City Cab Drivers: One Day At A time," Working Papers 960, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  9. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1999. "Analytical solutions to a structural signal extraction model: Lucas 1972 revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 509-521, December.
  10. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Gaffeo, E. & Petrella, I. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2010. "Reference-dependent Preferences and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2010-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Dhami, Sanjit & Al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2010. "Optimal taxation in the presence of tax evasion: Expected utility versus prospect theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 313-337, August.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  14. Sanjit Dhami & Ali al-Nowaihi, 2007. "Optimal income taxation in the presence of tax evasion: Expected utility versus prospect theory," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  15. Gary V. Engelhardt & Anil Kumar, 2008. "The elasticity of intertemporal substitution: new evidence from 401(k) participation," Working Papers 0812, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  16. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  18. Shafir, Eldar & Diamond, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 341-74, May.
  19. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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