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Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

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  • Dirk Besteri
  • Franz Ruch

Abstract

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of annual inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Annual inflation is decomposed into its trend, oscillating and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Five cyclical components are identified with differing amplitude and frequency. The […]

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Besteri & Franz Ruch, 2011. "Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers 256, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. du Plessis, S.A., 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
    2. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "Inflation Persistence And Core Inflation: The Case Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 430-444, September.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2012. "Comparing South African Inflation Volatility Across Monetary Policy Regimes: An Application of Saphe Cracking," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 45-54, January-J.
    4. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
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    7. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346, October.
    8. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    10. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12.
    11. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    12. Md Atikur Rahman Khan & D.S. Poskitt, 2011. "Window Length Selection and Signal-Noise Separation and Reconstruction in Singular Spectrum Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    13. Pietro Catte & Torsten Sløk, 2005. "Assessing the value of indicators of underlying inflation for monetary policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 461, OECD Publishing.
    14. Zelda Blignaut & Greg Farrell & Victor Munyama & Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "A Note On The Trimmed Mean Measure Of Core Inflation In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(4), pages 538-552, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2020. "Forecasting core inflation: the case of South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(28), pages 3004-3022, June.
    2. Gideon Du Rand & Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 503, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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