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The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bond Returns Volatility: A Segmented Markets Approach

Author

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  • Bruce Mizrach

    () (Rutgers University)

  • Filippo Occhino

    () (Rutgers University)

Abstract

This paper assesses the contribution of monetary policy to bond returns volatility, assuming that the monetary authority controls the short-term nominal interest rate. We model exogenously the joint process for the aggregate endowment and the nominal interest rate, and we determine endogenously bond real returns. We introduce markets segmentation assuming that some households are permanently excluded from ¯nancial markets. With full participation, real returns are determined by the aggregate endow- ment only, so monetary policy can a®ect them only through its e®ect on the aggregate endowment. When markets are segmented, however, monetary policy has a direct liquidity effect on the participants' marginal utility, on the stochastic discount factor, and on real returns. The smaller the fraction of participants in the economy, the larger the impact of monetary policy. When the relative risk aversion parameter is set to values estimated in experimental micro studies, the full participation model cannot replicate bond returns volatility, while the segmented markets model can fully account for the apparent excess volatility of short-term bond returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Mizrach & Filippo Occhino, 2004. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bond Returns Volatility: A Segmented Markets Approach," Departmental Working Papers 200402, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200402
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    File URL: http://www.sas.rutgers.edu/virtual/snde/wp/2004-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    2. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    3. Filippo Occhino, 2004. "Modeling the Response of Money and Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Shocks: A Segmented Markets Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 181-197, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederik Lundtofte, 2013. "The quality of public information and the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, pages 715-740.
    2. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Baasansuren, Lkhagvajav, 2007. "Monetary policy and bond market development: A case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 72193, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond returns volatility; limited participation; segmented markets; monetary policy shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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