The stock market and the Fed
The paper investigates the reaction of the Federal Reserve to developments in the stock market. The issue is analyzed by first constructing an Index of Stock Price Misalignement in which the fundamental value of the stocks is computed on the basis of the discounted cash flow approach and by then including this index, among the regressors, into a forward looking Taylor rule. In accordance with the descriptive evidence, based mainly on the analysis of the FOMC meetings and public statements, our findings show that the Fed tends to lower the Fed funds rate when stock prices fall below their fundamental value, while there is no evidence of monetary stringency during episodes of exuberance in the stock market.
|Date of creation:||14 Jul 2008|
|Date of revision:||14 Jul 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ceistorvergata.itEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma|
Web: http://www.ceistorvergata.it Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied, 2004. "The value relevance of accounting and financial information: panel data evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1219-1224.
- Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996.
"The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns,"
208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Nelson, Edward, 2001.
"UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England.
- Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
- Sunil Mohanty & Edward Aw, 2006. "Rationality of analysts' earnings forecasts: evidence from dow 30 companies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 915-929.
- repec:rtv:ceiswp:211 is not listed on IDEAS
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
- Steven N. Kaplan & Richard S. Ruback, 1994.
"The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
4724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. " The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-93, September.
- James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
- Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2004. "Do high-tech stock prices revert to their 'fundamental' value?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 461-476.
- Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007.
"Market vs. analysts reaction: the effect of aggregate and firm-specific news,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 299-312.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Barbara Piazzi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.