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Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Heinrichs, Nicolas
  • Hess, Dieter
  • Homburg, Carsten
  • Lorenz, Michael
  • Sievers, Soenke

Abstract

Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) are derived under the assumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting. Because these conditions are hardly ever met, we extend the standard approaches, based on the fundamental principle of financial statement articulation. The extended models are then tested empirically by employing two sets of forecasts: (1) analyst forecasts provided by Value Line and (2) forecasts generated by cross-sectional regression models. The main result is that our extended models yield considerably smaller valuation errors. Moreover, by construction, identical value estimates are obtained across the extended models. By reestablishing empirical equivalence under non-ideal conditions, our approach provides a benchmark that enables us to quantify the errors resulting from individual deviations from ideal conditions, and thus, to analyze the robustness of the standard approaches. Finally, by providing a level playing field for the different valuation approaches, our findings have implications for other empirical settings, for example, estimating the implied cost of capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinrichs, Nicolas & Hess, Dieter & Homburg, Carsten & Lorenz, Michael & Sievers, Soenke, 2011. "Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions," CFR Working Papers 11-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Erdorf & Nicolas Heinrichs, 2011. "Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(4), pages 411-433, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dirty Surplus; Terminal Value; Steady-State; Valuation Error;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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