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Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues

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  • EUGENE F. FAMA
  • KENNETH R. FRENCH

Abstract

The book-to-market ratio (B/M) is a noisy measure of expected stock returns because it also varies with expected cashflows. Our hypothesis is that the evolution of B/M, in terms of past changes in book equity and price, contains independent information about expected cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. The tests support this hypothesis, with results that are largely but not entirely similar for Microcap stocks (below the 20-super-th NYSE market capitalization percentile) and All but Micro stocks (ABM). Copyright (c) 2008 The American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2971-2995, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:6:p:2971-2995
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    2. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2016. "Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 28-45.
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Chatterjee, Sris & Topyan, Kudret, 2015. "Decomposition of book-to-market and the cross-section of returns for Chinese shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-120.
    4. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri V., 2015. "Deflating profitability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 225-248.
    5. Huang, Yuan & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "The q-theory explanation for the external financing effect: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 69-81.
    6. Heinrichs, Nicolas & Hess, Dieter & Homburg, Carsten & Lorenz, Michael & Sievers, Soenke, 2011. "Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions," CFR Working Papers 11-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Michael R. Roberts, 2016. "The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 22894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    9. Aharoni, Gil & Grundy, Bruce & Zeng, Qi, 2013. "Stock returns and the Miller Modigliani valuation formula: Revisiting the Fama French analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 347-357.
    10. repec:eee:pacfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:84-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2010. "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Papers 15948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Shieh, Shwu-Jane & Lin, Chih-Yung & Ho, Po-Hsin, 2012. "Large changes in stock prices: Market, liquidity, and momentum effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 183-197.
    13. Hung, Weifeng & Chiao, Chaoshin & Liao, Tung Liang & Huang, Sheng-Tang, 2012. "R&D, risks and overreaction in a market with the absence of the book-to-market effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 11-24.

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