IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v17y2007i4p299-312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market vs. analysts reaction: the effect of aggregate and firm-specific news

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Bagella
  • Leonardo Becchetti
  • Rocco Ciciretti

Abstract

Firm-specific and aggregate shocks generate reassessment of investors and analysts expectations on earnings forecasts and on the fundamental value of equities. In this article, we evaluate the effects of this combined reaction on the implied equity risk premium extracted from a standard two-stage dividend discount (DD) model. If investors and analysts revisions coincide, and in absence of measurement errors in the DD formula, the observed shocks should not have any significant impact on prices and Implied Equity Risk Premium (IEPR). On the contrary, in an analysis based on data for all S&P 500 COMPOSITE INDEX constituents from 1990 to 2003, we observe substantial overreaction of investors to both downward and upward firm-specific forecast revisions, plus overreaction to changes in GDP and to the announcements of the Consumer and Business Confidence indicator. We also observe that positive overreaction to upward earning forecast revisions and GDP changes falls after the stock bubble burst, while overreaction to upward forecast revision and to announcements of the Consumer Confidence Index looses significance after the 9/11 terrorist attack. These findings are broadly consistent with the hypothesis of reduced participation of uninformed (noise) traders to financial markets after these two shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti, 2007. "Market vs. analysts reaction: the effect of aggregate and firm-specific news," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 299-312.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:4:p:299-312 DOI: 10.1080/09603100600690051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100600690051
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    3. Theodore Syriopoulos, 2004. "International portfolio diversification to Central European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1253-1268.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dimitar Tonchev & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2004. "Calendar effects in Eastern European financial markets: evidence from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1035-1043.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 145-168.
    8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    9. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 9-24.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    11. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    12. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    13. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
    14. Mardi Dungey & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "A Multifactor Model of Exchange Rates with Unanticipated Shocks: Measuring Contagion in the East Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 305-330, December.
    15. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    16. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, pages 53-86.
    17. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "Currency Market Contagion In The Asia-Pacific Region," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 379-395, December.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Mattesini & Leonardo Becchetti, 2009. "The stock market and the Fed," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 99-110.
    2. Michele Bagella & Rocco Ciciretti, 2009. "Financial markets and the post-crisis scenario," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(3), pages 215-225, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:4:p:299-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.