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Interactions between bank behavior and financial structure: evidence from a developing country

  • Bakis, Ozan

    ()

    (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center)

  • Karanfil, Fatih

    ()

    (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center)

  • Polat, Sezgin

    ()

    (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center)

We use time-series analysis to examine bank behavior with respect to credit supply employing both banking data and other financial variables for the Turkish economy over the 1990 – 2009 period. We provide a vector error-correction (VEC) model to test for multivariate cointegration and Granger causality. More specifically, this paper seeks to fill the gap on how the bank behavior interacts with the financial structure given the conditions of macroeconomic policy. Our findings suggest that Granger causality is present between credit-deposit ratio and maturity of time deposits which implies that depositor decision on maturity changes the composition of balance sheet of banks leading to low credit creation. This result implies that macroeconomic uncertainty and instability lead to a kind of credit contraction with the decrease of deposit maturity. Our results also reveal that economic cycles are credit-driven in Turkey.

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Paper provided by Galatasaray University Economic Research Center in its series GIAM Working Papers with number 12-1.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 21 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:giamwp:2012_001
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  1. Gokhan Karabulut & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Ayse Celikel Danisoglu, 2010. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(0), pages 51-58, May.
  2. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  3. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  5. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries; A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  12. Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D., 1988. "Financial Intermediation And Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 124, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
  14. Bussiere Matthieu & Fratzscher Marcel & Koeniger Winfried, 2006. "Uncertainty and Debt-Maturity in Emerging Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, March.
  15. Hakan Kara & Fethi Öğünç, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 52-66, November.
  16. Vinod, H. D., 2004. "Ranking mutual funds using unconventional utility theory and stochastic dominance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 353-377, June.
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