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Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets


  • Brière, Marie

    () (Paris Dauphine University)

  • Ferrarini, Benno

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Ramayandi, Arief

    () (Asian Development Bank)


Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile “distance to distress” measure suggests that any of these countries may fall victim to a sudden loss in market confidence. For example, the value of Indonesia’s sovereign assets dropped to just two standard deviations above its repayment obligations during the 2013 United States Federal Reserve taper tantrum, causing capital outflows and currency depreciation. Generally, we find that contingent claims analysis and market-based risk measures well complement conventional debt sustainability analysis for Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Brière, Marie & Ferrarini, Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2016. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 486, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0486

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
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    More about this item


    contingent claims analysis; public debt sustainability;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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