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Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies


  • Kopits, George

    () (Woodrow Wilson International)

  • Ferrarini, Benno

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Ramayandi, Arief

    () (Asian Development Bank)


The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of vulnerability faced by different emerging economies in Asia and reviews a range of stochastic methods that attempt to explicitly incorporate risk in their analysis. Drawing on international experience, we note that the usefulness of applying a stochastic approach hinges on policy makers’ capacity to identify the sources and extent of risks in assessing fiscal sustainability, which should then allow them to simulate the impact of a hypothetical corrective action on the baseline trajectory of debt or net worth and on its stochastic distribution, including fat-tail risks of default.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopits, George & Ferrarini, Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2016. "Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 483, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0483

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    4. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    5. Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15233.
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    Cited by:

    1. George Kopits, 2016. "The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan," IMF Working Papers 16/156, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item


    fiscal sustainability; risk-based fiscal analysis; sovereign debt; stochastic approach;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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