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Trade Liberalization Versus Protectionism: Are the Dynamic Welfare Implications Symmetric?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Sposi

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Ana Maria Santacreu

    (St. Louis Fed)

Abstract

We quantify changes in welfare that result from alternative trade reforms in an economy with endogenous capital accumulation. The dynamic welfare gains associated with a particular reduction in trade frictions are larger than the dynamic welfare losses associated with returning to the initial level of the frictions. This ``asymmetry'' occurs in the short-run, yet, permanently affects welfare. Three channels contribute to the size of the asymmetry: (i) the rate of capital depreciation, (ii) the responses of measured TFP and the marginal efficiency of investment to the trade shock, and (iii) the optimal response of the investment rate. Absent transitional dynamics, the gains from a trade liberalization are equal to the losses from returning to the initial trade frictions. The short-run asymmetries imply that the sequencing of trade reforms matters for welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2017. "Trade Liberalization Versus Protectionism: Are the Dynamic Welfare Implications Symmetric?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1617, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1617
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    2. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    3. M. Affendy, Arip & Sim Yee, Lau & Satoru, Madono, 2010. "Commodity-industry classificationproxy: A correspondence table between SITC revision 2 and ISIC revision 3," MPRA Paper 27626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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