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Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate

Author

Listed:
  • Leighton Vaughan Williams

    (Nottingham Trent University)

  • James Reade

    () (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

Abstract

We consider the impact of breaking news on market prices by looking at activity on the micro-blogging platform Twitter surrounding the #bigotgate scandal during the 2010 UK General Election, and subsequent movements of betting prices on a prominent betting exchange, Betfair. We find that the response of market prices appears sluggish, as over a thousand tweets are sent before any price movement is registered (despite trading taking place). However, this slow movement appears to be explained by the need for corroborating evidence via more traditional forms of media; once important Tweeters begin to Tweet, once hyperlinks are added to Tweets, and once television and radio news bulletins begin, prices begin to move.

Suggested Citation

  • Leighton Vaughan Williams & James Reade, 2014. "Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-09
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    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp2014114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
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    3. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
    4. Julianne Treme & Zoe VanDerPloeg, 2014. "The Twitter Effect: Social Media Usage as a Contributor to Movie Success," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 793-809.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Asquith, Paul, 1983. "Merger bids, uncertainty, and stockholder returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 51-83, April.
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    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    2. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information and market ffciency; gambling; political elections;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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