IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2001-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on Banks’ Risk and Profitability

Author

Listed:
  • Marianne Gizycki

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines the overall variability of Australian banks’ credit risk during the 1990s. It assesses the extent to which this overall variability can be explained by variability in the level of banks’ aggregate credit risk over time, or alternatively, by variation in the average credit risk of different banks. The ability of macroeconomic variables to explain movements in bank risk is also considered. Discussion of banks’ credit risk is supplemented with analysis of the rate of return on assets earned by banks since the 1960s. While most of the variability in banks’ credit risk and profitability is due to differences between banks, macroeconomic variables are found to exert a strong influence on banks’ risk and profitability. The share of interest payments in the corporate and household sectors’ income, real credit growth and property prices are most strongly correlated with banks’ risk and profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Gizycki, 2001. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on Banks’ Risk and Profitability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2001-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2001/pdf/rdp2001-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. William R. Emmons, 1993. "Increased risk-taking versus local economic conditions as causes of bank failures," Proceedings 408, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
    4. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    5. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    6. Robert A. Eisenbeis & Gary D. Ferrier & Simon H. Kwan, 1999. "The informativeness of stochastic frontier and programming frontier efficiency scores: Cost efficiency and other measures of bank holding company performance," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
    8. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tri Wulandari & Lukytawati Anggraeni & Trias Andat, 2016. "Modeling the profitability of commercial banks in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 8(2), pages 109-119, April.
    2. Zuzanna Wośko, 2016. "Credit Risk of FX Loans in Poland. Debt Service Burden and the Effect of Neutralization of Currency Depreciation by Foreign Interest Rates," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 43-59, March.
    3. Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The highs and the lows: A theory of credit risk assessment and pricing through the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven Ongena, 1999. "Lending Relationships, Bank Default and Economic Activity," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 257-280.
    2. Sahminan, Sahminan, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate depreciation on commercial bank failures in Indonesia," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 175-193, July.
    3. Matovnikov Mikhail, 2003. "The ups and downs of banking system in transition," EERC Working Paper Series 99-244e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Pavlos Almanidis & Robin C. Sickles, 2016. "Banking Crises, Early Warning Models, and Efficiency," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Juan Aparicio & C. A. Knox Lovell & Jesus T. Pastor (ed.), Advances in Efficiency and Productivity, chapter 0, pages 331-364, Springer.
    6. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    7. de Haas, Ralph & van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "The strategic behavior of banks during a financial crisis; evidence from the syndicated loan market," MPRA Paper 14164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Giovanno Favara, 2006. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Endogenous Business Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Harold Ngalawa & Fulbert Tchana Tchana & Nicola Viegi, 2016. "Banking instability and deposit insurance: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 323-350, November.
    10. Niinimaki, J. -P., 2001. "Intertemporal diversification in financial intermediation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 965-991, May.
    11. Berger, Allen N. & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, 2021. "Banking research in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Laurent Vilanova, 2000. "« Les déterminants du soutien abusif : une première approche empirique » Article paru dans Banque & Marchés n°47 Mai-Juin 2000 pp.42-56," Post-Print halshs-02418818, HAL.
    13. Santos, Joao A.C., 2006. "Why firm access to the bond market differs over the business cycle: A theory and some evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2715-2736, October.
    14. Morck, Randall & Deniz Yavuz, M. & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Banking system control, capital allocation, and economy performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 264-283, May.
    15. Andrew Logan, 2001. "The United Kingdom's small banks' crisis of the early 1990s: what were the leading indicators of failure?," Bank of England working papers 139, Bank of England.
    16. Hind Sami, 2005. "Financial Distress and Reputational Concerns," Working Papers 0509, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    17. Laurent Vilanova, 2002. "L'impact des effets de réputation sur l'incitation des banques à soutenir des entreprises non viables," Post-Print halshs-00467735, HAL.
    18. Sahut, Jean-Michel & Mili, Mehdi, 2011. "Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 138-146, January.
    19. João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2022. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1259-1324, April.
    20. A Das & S Ghosh, 2007. "Determinants of Credit Risk in Indian State-owned Banks: An Empirical Investigation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 12(2), pages 27-46, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; credit risk; cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2001-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.