IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quarterly Models of Wage Determination: Some New Efficient Estimates


  • J.C.R. Rowley

    (Queen's University)

  • D.A. Wilton

    (Queen's University)


The concept of stable Phillips curves and their economic implications have been the subject of a series of disputes in recent years. Since Phillips introduced his simple disequilibrium model,empirical research in the field of wage determination has indicated a wide spectrum of explanatory variables which expands and contracts almost randomly in published studies. Apart from this difficulty in specification, the intertemporal instability of estimated coefficients for Phillips curve variants is particularly disturbing. In addition, the theoretical bases for many of these variants are unclear, and several economists have participated in a neo-classical counter-attack on the existence and stability of Phillips curves from a theoretical viewpoint. The objectives of this paper are to examine the consequences of certain invalid statistical procedures which are employed in many of these studies and to provide some empirical evidence of their effect. In particular, we focus attention on the implications of the aggregate procedure which provides the basis for the use of a "four quarter overlapping change" representation of the dependent variable in quarterly studies of wage determination and, also, for the use of moving averages of explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • J.C.R. Rowley & D.A. Wilton, 1971. "Quarterly Models of Wage Determination: Some New Efficient Estimates," Working Paper 51, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:51

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version 1971
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. G. L. Reuber, 1970. "Wage Adjustments in Canadian Industry, 1953–66," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 449-468.
    2. O. Eckstein, 1968. "Money Wage Determination Revisited," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 133-143.
    3. Anderson, Paul S, 1969. "Wages and the Guideposts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 351-354, June.
    4. Sparks, Gordon R & Wilton, David A, 1971. "Determinants of Negotiated Wage Increases: An Empirical Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 739-750, September.
    5. repec:qed:wpaper:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. de Menil, George, 1969. "Nonlinearity in a Wage Equation for United States Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 202-206, May.
    7. Lipsey, R G & Parkin, J M, 1970. "Incomes Policy: A Re-appraisal," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(146), pages 115-138, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. J.C.R. Rowley & D.A. Wilton, 1972. "Known Moving-Average Transformations and Autoregressive Processes," Working Paper 70, Economics Department, Queen's University.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.