IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analyzing the Asymmetric Effects of Inflation and Exchange Rate Misalignments on the Petrochemical Stock index: The Case of Iran


  • Zarei, Samira


While the petrochemical products and their revenues have been the most important part of Iranian non-oil exports, after imposing the international sanctions on Iran’s economy, these revenues, reflected in the petrochemical stock index, have fluctuated. In line with this, the effects of some main macroeconomic variables on the petrochemical stock index have become more crucial than before. Among the macroeconomic variables, inflation and exchange rate are the most effective. Hence, To investigate whether the exchange rate misalignments and inflation are significant indicators of changes in the petrochemical stock index, this paper has been applied the time series data from January 2012 to January 2020 and an asymmetric and non-linear framework, NARDL. The empirical results in addition to prove the existence of asymmetric and significant relationships between the research variables, confirm that the impacts of negative components of exchange rate misalignments and, conversely, positive components of inflation have been stronger than the effects of their decomposed counterparts both in the long run and short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Zarei, Samira, 2020. "Analyzing the Asymmetric Effects of Inflation and Exchange Rate Misalignments on the Petrochemical Stock index: The Case of Iran," MPRA Paper 99101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99101

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    2. Saeed Shavvalpour & Hossein Khanjarpanah & Farhad Zamani & Armin Jabbarzadeh, 2017. "Petrochemical Products Market and Stock Market Returns: Empirical Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(2), pages 383-403, Spring.
    3. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2016. "Time-Varying Correlations between Inflation and Stock Prices in the United States over the Last Two Centuries," Working Papers 201605, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, December.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral K., 2017. "Has the correlation of inflation and stock prices changed in the United States over the last two centuries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-8.
    7. Akbar Komijani & Esmaeil Naderi & Nadiya Gandali Alikhani, 2014. "A hybrid approach for forecasting of oil prices volatility," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 323-340, September.
    8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2019. "Oil booms and inequality in Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 830-859, May.
    9. Hamid Davari & Alireza Kamalian, 2018. "Oil Price and Inflation in Iran: Non-Linear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 295-300.
    10. Motahari, Moheb Alah & Lotfalipour , Mohammad Reza & Ahmadai Shadmehri, Mohammad Taher, 2018. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Iran: New Findings with Non-Linear Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 4(4), pages 175-198, March.
    11. Hamidreza Ghorbani Dastgerdi & Zarinah Binti Yusof & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(49), pages 5316-5334, October.
    12. Younes Nademi, 2018. "The resource curse and income inequality in Iran," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1159-1172, May.
    13. Hojat Parsa & Hadi Keshavarz & Vahid Mohamad Taghvaee, 2019. "Industrial Growth and Sustainable Development in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(2), pages 319-339, Spring.
    14. Howard J. Shatz & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection: Lessons from Experience," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 5, pages 115-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Shima Haj Ghanbar Viliani & Farhad Ghaffari & Kambiz Hozhabr Kiani, 2019. "Does Oil Price Asymmetrically Pass-Through Banking Stock Index in Iran?," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(3), pages 659-674, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Saadati, Alireza & Honarmandi, Zahra & Zarei, Samira, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Shocks and Export-Oriented Businesses in Iran: An Empirical Analysis Using NARDL Model," MPRA Paper 101554, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zarei, Samira, 2019. "How do Real Exchange Rate Movements Affect the Economic Growth in Iran?," MPRA Paper 99102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    5. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    6. Anders, Sven & Fedoseeva, Svetlana, 2017. "Quality, Sourcing, and Asymmetric Exchange-Rate Pass-Through into U.S. Coffee Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(3), September.
    7. Amine Lahiani & Sinha Avik & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "Renewable energy consumption, income, CO2 emissions and oil prices in G7 countries: The importance of asymmetries," Post-Print hal-03677233, HAL.
    8. Sohag, Kazi & Sokhanvar, Amin & Belyaeva, Zhanna & Mirnezami, Seyed Reza, 2022. "Hydrocarbon prices shocks, fiscal stability and consolidation: Evidence from Russian Federation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Ajayi, Patricia & Ogunrinola, Adedeji, 2020. "Growth, Trade Openness and Environmental Degradation in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 100713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bernhard Dalheimer & Christoph Kubitza & Bernhard Brümmer, 2022. "Technical efficiency and farmland expansion: Evidence from oil palm smallholders in Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1364-1387, August.
    11. Abbas, Shujaat, 2020. "Impact of oil prices on remittances to Pakistan from GCC countries: evidence from panel asymmetric analysis," MPRA Paper 107246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    13. Jaka Sriyana, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 283-290.
    14. Mahmood, Haider & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Ahmed, Nawaz, 2017. "Impact of devaluation on Saudi oil exports: The J-Curve analysis," MPRA Paper 109454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thi-Ngoc Anh NGUYEN & SATO Kiyotaka, 2018. "Firm Predicted Exchange Rates and Nonlinearities in Pricing-to-Market," Discussion papers 18071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2018. "Convergence hypothesis in tourism markets and activities in Taiwan," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1037-1044, December.
    17. Quynh Chau Pham Holland & Benjamin Liu & Eduardo Roca, 2019. "International funding cost and heterogeneous mortgage interest-rate pass-through: a bank-level analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1255-1289, October.
    18. Daniel L. Millimet & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2022. "COVID‐19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1178-1215, July.
    19. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    20. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mensi, Walid & Cho, Jin Seo, 2022. "Spillovers between exchange rate pressure and CDS bid-ask spreads, reserve assets and oil prices using the quantile ARDL model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 66-78.

    More about this item


    Petrochemical Stock Index; Exchange Rate Mis-alignments; Inflation; NARDL Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.