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Dolarización: efectos y riesgos en el caso ecuatoriano
[Dollarization: effects and risks in the Ecuadorian case]

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of dollarization on the trend and volatility of key Ecuadorian macroeconomic aggregates such as inflation and economic growth rates. Additionally, it analyzes whether the current account balance and the fiscal deficit, variables associated with the sustainability of dollarization, have undergone structural changes due to the mentioned monetary system. The results indicate that inflation experiences a negative trend that is worrisome because of the possible consequences on the stability of the financial system, while economic growth does not seem to have become more volatile than before dollarization. Regarding the fiscal deficit, there is evidence of a recent regime of high-sustained deficits that would lead to a fiscal consolidation with collateral effects on the macroeconomy. These effects are not related to dollarization, but may affect its sustainability. Finally, although the current account balance does not show a structural change since the implementation of dollarization, the balance of non-oil trade balance does appear to have undergone a change in its structure since 2000, as it presents greater deficits. There is evidence that this regime would have given way to another characterized by smaller deficits since the decline of oil prices in mid-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "Dolarización: efectos y riesgos en el caso ecuatoriano [Dollarization: effects and risks in the Ecuadorian case]," MPRA Paper 98250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98250
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth P. Jameson, 2003. "Is It Possible to De-Dollarize? : The Case of Ecuador," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 42-60.
    2. Morris Goldstein, 2017. "Managed Floating Plus," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 6, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2003. "Dollarization and economic performance: What do we really know?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 351-363.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 8274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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