Empirics of Child Survival Progress in 190 Countries:1990-2015

This paper analyses the progress towards child survival in 190 countries during 1990-2015 on the basis of the estimates of under-five mortality rate prepared by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group on Child Mortality Estimation. The analysis reveals that in more than two-third countries, the target of reducing the under-five mortality rate by two-third during 1990-2015 could not be achieved and there are countries where the under-five mortality rate increased instead decreased during this period. The analysis suggests that the progress towards child survival during 1990-2015 was arrived at largely by eroding the ‘soft’ rock of under-five mortality or by preventing deaths due to exogenous causes of under-five mortality, especially in 1-4 years of life. Although, inter-country disparity in child survival decreased over time, yet, the speed of convergence was slow. In many countries the number of child deaths prevented as the result of the improvement in child survival probability was compensated by the increase in under-five deaths because of rapid population growth. The analysis suggests that in most of the countries, the commitment made towards child survival by endorsing the United Nations Millennium Declaration could not be followed up by concrete efforts in terms of increased investment in children. The paper calls for country specific approach to accelerating the child survival progress.