An Empirical Model of Learning under Ambiguity: The Case of Clinical Trials
In this paper, I present an empirical model of learning under ambiguity in the context of clinical trials. Patients are concern with learning the treatment effect of the experimental drug, but face the ambiguity of random group assignment. A two dimensional Bayesian model of learning is proposed to capture patients�beliefs on the treatment effect and group assignment. These beliefs are then used to predict patient attrition in clinical trials. Patient learning is demonstrated to be slower when taking into account group ambiguity. In addition, the model corrects for attrition bias in the estimated treatment effect.
|Date of creation:||03 Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
- Stern, Steven, 1994.
"Two Dynamic Discrete Choice Estimation Problems and Simulation Method Solutions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 695-702, November.
- Steven Stern, 1994. "Two Dynamic Discrete Choice Estimation Problems and Simulation Method Solutions," Virginia Economics Online Papers 389, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
- Tat Y. Chan & Barton H. Hamilton, 2006. "Learning, Private Information, and the Economic Evaluation of Randomized Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 997-1040, December.
- James Heckman & Neil Hohmann & Jeffrey Smith & Michael Khoo, 2000.
"Substitution and Dropout Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 651-694.
- James Heckman & Neil Hohmann & Jeffrey Smith, 1998. "Substitution and Dropout Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9819, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
- Gregory S. Crawford & Matthew Shum, 2005. "Uncertainty and Learning in Pharmaceutical Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1137-1173, July.
- Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2003. "Advertising, learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: an empirical examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1007-1040, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.