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On the predictability of economic structural change by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory

Listed author(s):
  • Stijepic, Denis

The three-sector framework (relating to agriculture, manufacturing, and services) is one of the major concepts for studying the long-run change of the economic structure. We discuss the system-theoretical classification of the structural change phenomenon and, in particular, the predictability of the structural change in the three-sector framework by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory. To do so, we compare the assumptions of the Poincaré-Bendixson theory to (a) the typical axioms of structural change modelling, (b) the empirical evidence on the geometrical properties of structural change trajectories, and (c) some methodological arguments referring to the laws of structural change. The results of this comparison support the assumption that the structural change phenomenon is representable by a dynamic system that is predictable by the Poincaré-Bendixson theory. Moreover, we discuss briefly the implications of this result for structural change modelling and prediction as well as topics for further research.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 80849.

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Date of creation: 08 Aug 2017
Date of revision: 17 Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80849
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  1. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
  2. Silva, Ester G. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2008. "Surveying structural change: Seminal contributions and a bibliometric account," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 273-300, December.
  3. Coles, Melvyn G. & Wright, Randall, 1998. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Search, Bargaining, and Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 32-54, January.
  4. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
  5. Timo Boppart, 2014. "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model With Relative Price Effects and Non‐Gorman Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2167-2196, November.
  6. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
  7. Schettkat, Ronald & Yocarini, Lara, 2006. "The shift to services employment: A review of the literature," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 127-147, June.
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, 06.
  9. Stijepic, Denis, 2016. "A topological approach to structural change analysis and an application to long-run labor allocation dynamics," MPRA Paper 74568, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2016.
  10. Stijepic, Denis, 2015. "A geometrical approach to structural change modelling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 71-85.
  11. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
  12. Stijepic, Denis, 2017. "On development paths minimizing the structural change costs in the three-sector framework and an application to structural policy," MPRA Paper 77023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2017.
  13. Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long-Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, 07.
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